Creeping yams and bees behaving strangely – in Fiji, farmers read nature's warning signs to predict hurricane season.
蔓延生长的山药藤和行为异常的蜜蜂——在斐济，农民通过解读大自然的警示信号来预测飓风季。
It's July, a month when Fijian farmers begin watching wild yams closely.
现在是七月，斐济农民会在这个月份开始密切观察野生山药。
"If they see wild yam vines creeping along the ground, there's going to be a hurricane in between November and April – the hurricane season," says farmer Marika Radua.
农民马里卡·拉杜阿说：“如果他们看到野山药藤蔓沿着地面爬生，那么在11月至4月这个飓风季期间就会有飓风。”
If the vines shoot upwards, it's unlikely a hurricane will hit, he says.
他说，如果藤蔓向上生长，飓风就不太可能袭来。
In the dense jungle on Vanua Levu, Fiji's second largest island, Radua's farm is a riot of green.
在斐济第二大岛瓦努阿岛茂密的丛林中，拉杜阿的农场满眼葱绿、生机盎然。
Every plant has its place – from rows of delicate lettuce, to sturdy taro and cassava.
每一种植物都有自己的位置，从一排排娇嫩的生菜，到结实的芋头和木薯。
For years, Radua has read the signs in nature to know when, and where, to plant his crops to ensure they thrive each season.
多年来，拉杜阿一直通过解读自然界的迹象，判断何时、何地种植作物，以确保它们每个季节都能茁壮生长。
Yam vines are natural indicators of extreme weather, according to Fijian traditional ecological knowledge.
根据斐济传统生态知识，山药藤蔓是极端天气的天然指示物。
This environmental knowledge comprises ancient traditions held and practiced by indigenous peoples.
这种环境知识包含原住民世代持有并实践的古老传统。
When the vines hug the ground, "they are already trying to protect themselves from the wind.
当藤蔓贴伏在地面上时，“它们已经在试图保护自己免受风的侵袭。
It's nature," Radua says.
“这是大自然，”拉杜阿说。
Many Fijians – especially those from older generations who are more likely to use traditional farming methods – believe other organisms act as natural weather forecasts, such as bananas, bees and breadfruit.
许多斐济人，尤其是更可能使用传统耕作方法的老一辈，相信其他生物也会充当天然天气预报，例如香蕉、蜜蜂和面包果树。
Before modern technology, environmental indicators like these were used across the world to predict natural disasters.
在现代技术出现之前，世界各地都曾利用这类环境指示物来预测自然灾害。
But in the last century, data from satellites, weather radars and computers has provided increasingly precise monitoring and forecasting.
但在上个世纪，来自卫星、天气雷达和计算机的数据提供了越来越精确的监测和预报。
In the Pacific, communities are returning to ancient wisdom to anticipate extreme weather, to enhance modern methods.
在太平洋地区，各社区正重新借助古老智慧来预判极端天气，以强化现代方法。
Scientific studies and Fiji's meteorological service are recording these local "early warning signs" of tropical cyclones and flooding.
科学研究和斐济气象部门正在记录这些当地关于热带气旋和洪水的“早期预警信号”。
As climate-change-driven disasters pick up pace in the Pacific, traditional knowledge might buy communities more time to prepare.
随着气候变化驱动的灾害在太平洋地区加速发生，传统知识或许能为各社区争取更多准备时间。
In 2024, the Fijian Meteorological Service announced it would integrate traditional environmental knowledge into its scientific forecasting – describing the pair as "a total package".
2024年，斐济气象局宣布将把传统环境知识纳入其科学预报体系，并称两者结合起来是“一个完整方案”。
Fiji follows in the footsteps of Vanuatu, Tonga, Samoa, Niue and the Solomon Islands – Pacific nations participating in an ongoing project to integrate traditional knowledge in their early-warning systems.
斐济正追随瓦努阿图、汤加、萨摩亚、纽埃和所罗门群岛的脚步，这些太平洋国家正在参与一个持续推进的项目，将传统知识纳入本国的早期预警系统。
Siosinamele Lui, the climate traditional knowledge officer at Secretariat of the Pacific Regional Environment Programme (SPREP), an intergovernmental body, says natural indicators are key to helping remote communities can prepare for weather events.
政府间机构太平洋区域环境规划署秘书处的气候传统知识官员西奥西纳梅莱·卢伊说，自然指示物是帮助偏远社区为天气事件做好准备的关键。
"In most parts of the world, traditional knowledge and national services are not mentioned in the same sentence," says Lui.
卢伊说：“在世界大多数地方，传统知识和国家服务体系并不会被放在一起讨论。”
"But in the Pacific, it's now becoming the go to.
“但在太平洋地区，它现在正成为首选做法。
It's normal practice."
这已经是常规做法了。”
Since 2016, the SPREP project has been researching natural indicators, with Pacific islanders reporting early warning signs directly to the Pacific Meteorological Desk via calls, messages, social media or local climate centres.
自2016年以来，SPREP项目一直在研究自然指标，太平洋岛民则通过电话、信息、社交媒体或当地气候中心，直接向太平洋气象服务台报告早期预警迹象。
Vanuatu is "leading the way" with an app named ClimateWatch, says Lui.
卢伊说，瓦努阿图凭借一款名为ClimateWatch的应用程序“走在前列”。
The app has a database of crowd-sourced natural indicators – for example, green turtles nesting further inland suggests a cyclone may be approaching.
这款应用拥有一个由公众提供的自然指示物数据库，例如绿海龟在更靠内陆的地方筑巢，就表明气旋可能正在逼近。
However, using traditional knowledge to preempt weather events is not an instant process, says Lui.
卢伊说，然而，利用传统知识来预判天气事件并不是一个一蹴而就的过程。
"You cannot integrate a data set that's only five years old with a data set that's 100 years old.
“你不能把一个只有五年历史的数据集和一个有100年历史的数据集整合在一起。
At the moment, most of our monitoring data is not old enough for us to build it into the climate forecast," she adds.
她补充说：“目前，我们大多数监测数据的时间跨度还不够长，无法把它纳入气候预报。”
Therefore, the government is studying the correlation of traditional indicators with weather events, before building this into their climate forecasting model.
因此，政府正在研究传统指标与天气事件之间的相关性，然后再将其纳入气候预报模型。
However Lui says that promoting traditional weather knowledge can help people in secluded areas.
不过卢伊说，推广传统天气知识可以帮助偏远地区的人们。
"To put it in context, you're looking at the biggest ocean in the world, and you have thousands of islands that are widespread.
“从背景来看，你面对的是世界上最大的一片海洋，而且那里有成千上万个分布广泛的岛屿。
You don't have monitoring equipment on every island," says Lui.
“你不可能在每个岛上都配备监测设备，”卢伊说。
This technology is expensive and sparsely located, leading to gaps in meteorological data, she adds.
她补充说，这项技术成本高昂，而且分布稀疏，导致气象数据存在空白。
Not everyone will be able to get critical warning information on time, if at all.
并不是每个人都能及时获得关键预警信息，甚至未必能获得。
"That's where this programme comes in," says Lui.
“这正是这个项目派上用场的地方，”卢伊说。
"Whether it's from the Meteorological Service or whether it's traditional warning systems.
“无论是来自气象部门，还是来自传统预警系统。
The goal is for people to respond and be prepared," she says.
她说：“目标是让人们作出反应并做好准备。”
For Fijian people, traditional knowledge such as how the seasons change isn't "black and white", Radua says.
拉杜阿说，对斐济人来说，关于季节如何变化等传统知识并不是非黑即白的。
"We don't write things down – they are translated from one generation to the next through stories, songs, dances and idioms," he says.
他说：“我们不会把这些东西写下来，它们是通过故事、歌曲、舞蹈和习语代代相传的。”
Radua, who is a climate resilience expert on Vanua Levu, began compiling this cultural wisdom into a seasonal calendar available for farmers on the island.
拉杜阿是瓦努阿莱武岛的一名气候韧性专家，他开始把这种文化智慧汇编成一份季节历，供岛上的农民使用。
Many farms, both commercial and family-run, in Fiji have converted to modern ways of farming – for example monoculture, planting and cultivating a singular crop.
斐济的许多农场，无论是商业农场还是家庭经营的农场，都已转向现代耕作方式，例如单一种植，即只种植和培育一种作物。
Radua teaches subsistence farmers how to return to traditional agricultural methods, such as planting multiple crops at different times of the year.
拉杜阿教自给型农民如何回归传统农业方法，例如在一年中的不同时间种植多种作物。
Not only is this better for nature, but it means farmers can listen to the land for early warning signs, says Radua.
拉杜阿说，这不仅对自然更好，也意味着农民可以倾听土地发出的早期预警信号。
"The trees will tell them, when something flowers, it tells them," he says, explaining how farmers keep an eye on shifts beyond normal seasonal patterns.
他说：“树会告诉他们，某种植物开花时，它就在告诉他们。”他解释说，农民会留意超出正常季节模式的变化。
"That's preparedness and resilience," he adds.
他补充说：“这就是防备能力和韧性。”
For Pacific communities, the need to buffer against extreme weather is more urgent than ever.
对太平洋地区的社区来说，抵御极端天气的需求比以往任何时候都更加迫切。
Radua recalls Cyclone Winston, which caused widespread damage, costing Fiji's agricultural sector over $2m (£1.
拉杜阿回忆说，温斯顿气旋造成了大范围破坏，使斐济农业部门损失超过200万美元（约100万英镑。
5m).
5米）。
"Most of us lost all of our crops," he says.
“我们大多数人都失去了所有庄稼，”他说。
According to a 2025 report that assessed the country's climate risk – ranking Fiji 103 out of 190 countries – tropical cyclones are predicted to increase in severity in Fiji.
根据一份评估该国气候风险的2025年报告，斐济在190个国家中排名第103位；报告预测，斐济的热带气旋强度将会增加。
Pacific Island countries need around $1bn (£730m) for climate adaptation investments, according to the International Monetary Fund.
根据国际货币基金组织的数据，太平洋岛国需要约10亿美元（7.3亿英镑）用于气候适应投资。
Although several ideas are being considered to increase the country's climate resilience – from seawalls to climate migration – integrating ancient wisdom is being proposed as a low-cost part of the solution in Fiji.
尽管斐济正在考虑多种提高国家气候韧性的方案，从海堤到气候迁移不等，但将古老智慧融入其中正被提出作为低成本解决方案的一部分。
"Almost everything about mitigating climate change is pointing back to traditional knowledge," says Radua.
拉杜阿说：“几乎所有与减缓气候变化有关的事情，都在重新指向传统知识。”
Some Fijian communities reported that traditional signs were the first and most reliable way of being alerted that Cyclone Winston was approaching.
一些斐济社区报告称，传统征兆是他们最早、也最可靠地得知温斯顿气旋即将来临的方式。
In a coastal village in the Province of Tailevu, on the southeastern fringe of Vitu Levu, Fiji's main island, villagers noticed nature reacting in uncharacteristic ways up to four months before the cyclone.
在斐济主岛维提岛东南边缘泰莱武省的一个沿海村庄，村民们注意到，早在气旋到来前四个月，自然界就出现了不同寻常的反应。
In a 2025 report, published by independent think tank the International Institute for Sustainable Development, 10 villagers in Tailevu recalled witnessing a spectrum of signs, that have been previously seen happening prior to cyclones.
在独立智库国际可持续发展研究所发布的一份2025年报告中，泰莱武的10名村民回忆说，他们曾目睹一系列征兆，而这些征兆过去曾在气旋来临前出现过。
Around three to four months prior to the cyclone, hornets nested close to the ground, five or more breadfruit grew on one stalk and the central shoots of plantain plants curled instead of growing straight.
在气旋来临前三到四个月左右，黄蜂会在靠近地面的地方筑巢，一根果柄上会长出五个或更多面包果，车前蕉植株的中央嫩芽会卷曲，而不是笔直生长。
One month before the cyclone, fishers noticed the sea felt hotter, while small fish were found dead on the shorelines.
气旋来临前一个月，渔民注意到海水感觉更热，同时海岸线上发现了死亡的小鱼。
One week before the cyclone, seabirds flew towards land, swooping lower than usual.
气旋来临前一周，海鸟飞向陆地，俯冲高度比平时更低。
(Read more about how seabirds predict tropical cyclones.)
（阅读更多关于海鸟如何预测热带气旋的内容。）
The report suggests that tracking natural indicators gives communities more time to prepare prior to a disaster.
报告指出，追踪自然征兆能让社区在灾害发生前有更多时间准备。
With greater warning, villagers could stock up on food and fresh water, reinforce their houses and move farm animals to sheltered spaces.
如果能更早获得预警，村民就可以储备食物和淡水，加固房屋，并把牲畜转移到有遮蔽的地方。
"Faced with escalating climate risks and climate impacts, mounting costs and overstretched budgets, local and national governments are looking for ways to address the climate crisis in a cost-effective way," says Alec Crawford, the director of nature for resilience at the International Institute for Sustainable Development.
国际可持续发展研究所自然韧性项目主任亚历克·克劳福德说：“面对不断加剧的气候风险和气候影响、持续攀升的成本以及捉襟见肘的预算，地方和国家政府都在寻找以具有成本效益的方式应对气候危机的方法。”
But nature-based solutions grounded in traditional ecological knowledge goes beyond their cost effectiveness.
但以传统生态知识为基础的自然解决方案，其价值并不止于成本效益。
"They are the most well-suited adaptation actions to implement, because local communities are the ones who know best how to adapt to their changing environment," adds Crawford.
克劳福德补充说：“它们是最适合实施的适应行动，因为当地社区最清楚如何适应不断变化的环境。”
Joeli Veityaki, a climate scientist from the University of the South Pacific, says traditional indicators were developed centuries ago as important "coping mechanisms".
南太平洋大学气候科学家乔埃利·韦伊塔亚基说，传统指示物是在几个世纪前发展出来的重要“应对机制”。
"There are examples that our technology is just as good as tech in other parts of the world that are so dominant," he says.
他说：“有些例子表明，我们的技术和世界其他地区那些占主导地位的技术一样好。”
Patrick Nunn, a professor of geography from the University of the Sunshine Coast, Australia, says we have hardly "scratched the surface" of traditional ecological knowledge.
澳大利亚阳光海岸大学地理学教授帕特里克·纳恩说，我们对传统生态知识几乎还只是“触及皮毛”。
"In places like Fiji, all of its traditional knowledge is empirical based – people see something and they infer an association," he says.
他说：“在斐济这样的地方，所有传统知识都是以经验为基础的，人们看到某种现象，然后推断出一种关联。”
Nunn gives the example of when black birds fly over the land, and people deduce that a cyclone is on its way.
纳恩举例说，当黑色鸟类飞过陆地时，人们会推断气旋正在逼近。
"This knowledge has already been validated simply by the fact that they've been shown to work over long periods of time.
“这些知识已经得到了验证，理由很简单：它们已被证明能在漫长的时间里发挥作用。
If the sighting of black birds over the land is not a reliable indicator of an approaching tropical cyclone, then people wouldn't have retained that knowledge for so long," he adds.
他补充说：“如果看到黑色鸟类飞过陆地并不是热带气旋即将来临的可靠征兆，那么人们就不会把这种知识保留这么久。”
Nunn refers to oral stories from the Pacific that describe ant behaviour, which aligns with scientific observations.
纳恩提到太平洋地区描述蚂蚁行为的口述故事，这些故事与科学观察结果相吻合。
For example, leaf-cutter ants appear to detect subtle environmental changes that signal impending rain, prompting adaptive responses.
例如，切叶蚁似乎能察觉预示降雨将至的细微环境变化，从而作出适应性反应。
While this does not constitute scientific proof that ants can predict tropical cyclones days in advance, it does suggest that their behaviour may be predictive in ways consistent with Pacific traditional ecological knowledge.
虽然这并不构成蚂蚁能提前数天预测热带气旋的科学证明，但它确实表明，蚂蚁的行为可能具有预测性，而且这种预测方式与太平洋地区的传统生态知识相一致。
The idea that Pacific Islands are inherently "vulnerable" or "lack resilience" is misguided, says Nunn.
纳恩说，认为太平洋岛国天生“脆弱”或“缺乏韧性”的看法是错误的。
"People arrived in the Western Pacific more than 3,000 years ago, and they've been there ever since.
“人们在3000多年前来到西太平洋，并从那以后一直生活在那里。
They didn't survive by luck – they survived by design."
他们不是靠运气生存下来的，而是靠有意识的安排生存下来的。”
This doesn't mean the region is without challenges, or that climate change isn't reshaping traditional ways of life.
这并不意味着该地区没有挑战，也不意味着气候变化没有在重塑传统生活方式。
Between 1999 and 2018, Fiji ranked as the 13th country most affected by extreme weather events.
1999年至2018年间，斐济在受极端天气事件影响最严重的国家中排名第13位。
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"But there is a formidable body of traditional local knowledge in every Pacific Island community that is able to assist in developing strategies for coping with future climate change," says Nunn.
纳恩说：“但每个太平洋岛屿社区都有一套庞大而有分量的本地传统知识，能够帮助制定应对未来气候变化的策略。”
Back on his farm in Vanua Levu, Radua echoes a similar sentiment.
回到瓦努阿岛的农场上，拉杜阿表达了类似的看法。
"Knowledge evolves with time, but it's not just about traditional knowledge," he says.
“知识会随着时间演变，但它并不只是关乎传统知识，”他说。
"It's about living in harmony with nature."
“这是关于与自然和谐共处。”
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